2020 Election Coronavirus ... By Matthew Ball and Alex Kruglov November 12, 2019 I mean, if we were to take apart why 3-D worked, why VR didn’t work, and when and if those might come around, there are distinct reasons for that. At the same time, I think that there is a very valid argument that consumers, that families and parents, would prefer a dedicated Disney-branded service. I think that’s fair to say, but one of the reasons why you have to do that is there are really two components here. And then we hit the valley, and everyone said, “Actually, consumers don’t actually want this.” You’re pretty confident consumers do want this. They may be coming late to market, but they are coming out with such a high volume of outstanding quality. There’s always this question of, what is Amazon going to do with live sports? It’s the same reason when the music companies first try to do digital music, they actually did break up labels and there was like a Universal and BMG label, and one that was Warner and EMI, whatever it was. And then, a few weeks passed and I think he had rediscovered the blog and I had written another eight pieces. Or you were just door-knocking? And so, now we were going to customers and saying, “We will give you a better experience, with more content, with a direct access to the HBO content you like.” And, by the way, internally, we’re now no longer paying for that, right? It even turns down the $200B+ market for video advertising! Then we get to Transparent. Basically, we’re just going back to the old TV guide world, except it’s TV guide plus buying other services, right? Right. We’ve seen that with Emmys and Golden Globes year in and year out. One is, as with the Netflix pieces, it’s a frustration with a narrative that I think is wrong and I have the selfishness to want to correct it. Yeah, I certainly agree with that, and as I mentioned earlier, one of the big challenges is, we ask this existential question which is, “How many services is it going to be?” John Stankey has said that he believes this — this is the CEO of WarnerMedia. Further still, even those without media assets and who typically sell media are now adopting the model. College basketball is in full swing, and with coronavirus restrictions hindering the season, conference games are more important than ever. I believe there was a livecast, but those of us listening at home not attending in person couldn’t see the trailer. And the fact that they are spending billions of dollars on video, yet when I go to Amazon.com, I don’t see any evidence of the fact that there’s video there, there has to be a method to that madness. It was one of those catch-22s where if it’s bad, no one cares and it doesn’t help you. The gaming companies that led in the arcade era struggled to move over to the console era. And so, I just started doing that. So the Netflix stuff is going to disperse to different services. Was there anything where they said, “We think we’re going to go this way,” and you said, “I looked at it, let’s try this instead.” And they actually listened? Another giant, Fox, closed up shop rather than fight the digital-era war. Please consider making a contribution to Vox today, from as little as $3. Despite that fact, Amazon, which has a very strong anchor asset in Prime Video, seems to have by most third-party estimates really driven share gains in that share of direct-to-consumer subscriptions. Some believe this fee will grow over time (and it probably will), but even at the music industry’s peak (i.e. Which is to say, the majority of customers who are signing up for Starz or HBO or Showtime, despite the fact that they tend to have iPhones, they tend to have Apple TVs and iPads, are choosing to subscribe to those services through Amazon. And, as part of that, I started connecting with a guy, Jesse Jacobs, who was the president of Peter Chernin’s company, the Chernin Group. Each day, the average American watches more than five and half hours of video, in addition to some two and half hours of music. Selling music and video games, meanwhile, meant manufacturing physical media, shipping physical media, and having someone sell it in a physical store. I don’t have connections. Okay. You have a ... You do these tweetstorms and then you also do actual written copy. They also have the time to spend 10 years trying to get this right. After a long, arduous day of staring at your computer screen at work, sometimes nothing feels better than staring at your computer screen at home. And I watched it, in and out, and again way out of the demo, it seemed terrible to me. If you pick up Fortnite for the first time ... Yeah. Manchester United are in year two of what is supposed to be a three year rebuild. Previous. Yeah, I think a huge part of it is actually just going to be the younger audience members, who have sat there watching for five years, 10 years, frustrated by what they can’t do. That’s the same with gas. That’s digital video, direct-to-consumer video, and the traditional ecosystem of pay TV is rapidly eroding. Amazon says its Fire TV box has 34 million users worldwide, which gives it the power to own the streaming video relationship with consumers the way Apple does with its media box, the Apple TV. The narrative about Matthew Mayer—that his overconfidence is why he used to turn down shots as often as an alcoholic on $2 fireball night—is wrong. They know that their brand can attract top-tier creators, and so the idea that they can take some of their cash reserves, put out about a dozen or a half-dozen TV shows per year, and use that to become an anchor asset around that video content, is a very plausible strategy. A Satirical Essay for Recode/Vox: 10 lessons for all the streamers trying to take down Netflix. — technologist Matthew Ball Tapping remotely into all that computing power could let people play games that look better and move faster. You’re a big fan of Netflix. So that doesn’t work. First of all, there is a video tab on the homepage. Now we call it AT&T/WarnerMedia. I don’t know how many people sit back and they watch Coco or they watch Up and they say, “I want to live in this world, I want to take this character in my pocket elsewhere, I want to do a video game or interactive experience.” Illumination in particular is so oriented around character-first storytelling that when you start to take a look at what are the opportunities in interactive, in digital, that’s an incredibly fertile storytelling ... Yeah, and you’re speaking to someone who just spent a lot of money to take one of their kids around Universal. Prior to that, I was a management consultant at Accenture. the glory days of the CD album), spend peaked at $100 per capita. And it’ll instead be paying Disney a few dollars per active subscriber in exchange. In the broadcast era, networks didn’t charge consumers to watch their content. And if you have a guaranteed business model – say, selling another iPhone, Showtime subscription, ad impression, datapoint, or two-year wireless subscriptions – there are incentives to maximize your userbase (more people you can upsell to) and the amortization of fixed costs (the higher your unit contribution). I don’t think that there’s anything fundamentally different about how they operate internally. When you start to look at what types of shows really break out, really differentiate, and most importantly, are going to change people’s perception about paying for video in the first place. We’re actually pocketing a few bucks per month. For a long time, I’ve assumed that the people who work at Amazon, Jeff Bezos on down, know what they’re doing. The important symbolism of Joe Biden’s memorial to Covid-19’s victims, The most bizarre thing about Trump’s farewell speech is how normal it sounds. They’re trying to build up additional businesses? You go down to Tribeca, knock on his penthouse door. Or had you stopped already? And so, I think I waited for 20 or 30 minutes and he finally comes out and is like, “What is going on here?” And I just said, “Hey, you seem to like my work. It’s very simple. Their first foray into video, they did that at a $3,000/ticket Code Media conference. That delineation between those two on extremes is continuing to meld. Sometimes these TAMs are based around high-margin consumer devices, other times it’s trillions of dollars in retail spend, hundreds of billions in wireless service revenue, or terabytes of consumer data. Right, where they’ve said this is a subscription product, which could or couldn’t mean you do or don’t pay money for it. Or the answer is you’re just too far out of the demo. In 2017, legendary music producer and Apple Music executive Jimmy Iovine even boasted to Billboard that “[independent] streaming services have a bad situation, there’s no margins, they’re not making any money… Amazon sells Prime; Apple sells telephones and iPads; Spotify, they’re going to have to figure out a way to get that audience to buy something else.” To point, Spotify, the only at-scale pureplay music service and the overall market leader, has a 25% gross margin (and royalty agreements cap margins at 30%) and a negative 2% profit margin. You think creatively in a different way. It is not going to drive first-time Prime subscribers in Malaysia, in India, in Brazil. Follow Vox online: Site search Search. And, to some extent, it doesn’t matter how much an audience member knows what’s what or where it’s coming from in the same way an Amazon customer doesn’t care if it’s fulfilled by Amazon, shipped by Amazon, or an Amazon Basics. When you take a look at what’s distinctive at video versus music through licensing agreements for the fragmentation of the industry, services such as Apple and Spotify are able to effectively get all of the content in existence and offer it to subscribers. And Manchester by the Sea, Big Sick, big movies. Why are we going to do this? Do not give Matt Ball your money. Time said they’re trying to figure out how much to charge for this. They weren’t doing Ashton Kutcher shows until well after that. I think that it’s going to be very difficult for a lot of these services to survive because people aren’t going to say, “I want this and this and this and this.” They’ll say, “I want these two things, and the rest of it I can live without.”. I think the key thing to keep in mind is what’s always interesting when you have a delivery change or a technology and distribution change is not so much how that content moves from one device to another device, but what new content is created, to begin with. And we get it for free, awesome. Right. For the first eighty years of television, a company launched a video network to collect a share of the video pie. The challenge for video games is trying to find opportunities to allow for more passive play, to reduce the skill. It doesn’t have to. They can still recover, they can still have ... Their iPhone business isn’t going away, right? I wanted to see what you said anyway. Fire TV is another business that didn’t exist in the early days of Prime Video. The alternate feed makes sense to me, but we’re going to do one aimed specifically at teens, and what we’re going to do is we’re going to get Katie Nolan, our sort of millennial-ish host, put here with three other people and they’re going to talk while the game is going on. And then I’m confused, because you wrote for Jason, you still write for Jason, even though you won’t write for me, bothersome. Yeah. Five years ago, iTunes was so laughably dominant in that space. I don’t want to keep talking about ballerinas. For more than a century, the advertising industry has been a stable 1.25% of total GDP. Turns out no one will. In 2021, the company will launch an ad-supported version of HBO Max. Apple, Amazon, AT&T and Hulu are using their networks to then sell other networks and in doing so, collect a commission against the TAM they don’t personally operate. However, it does mean that the more people who have your service, the less you require from each subscriber to generate a profit. In India, people do not pay for video. For free. It essentially deflated. What’s more, most expect this sum to shrink as the bloated and barely competitive pay-TV ecosystem gives way to lower cost or free substitutes such as Netflix, Disney+, Amazon Prime Video, Apple TV+, and so on. Yeah, I can see lots of things you could do with Despicable Me 1, 2, 3, and all of those. NBCUniversal and Sky exited to Comcast, a telecom, while Time Warner sold to AT&T, a telecom. Inevitably, someone says, “Boy, it seems like someone’s going to have to create a service that takes all these channels and bundles them together. If you go visit Netflix in the last few months, they play up this interactive stuff they’re playing, right? And I started hearing from people. Right. And the forward plan, Lord of the Rings inclusive, Wheel of Time, suggests that they have properties that audiences will love too. 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